On May 16th, the ECEMF organized its fifth research policy workshop in Warsaw, Poland. The workshop allowed exchanging information on the latest policy developments from the Polish perspective. Representatives from the Ministry of Climate and Environment in Poland, among others, shared insights into the state’s environmental policy, Polish energy policy, and the National Plan for Energy and Climate. Other invitees included Polish NGOs, think tanks, and industry representatives.
ECEMF representatives shared insights into modelling results for EU 2040 targets, low-emission scenarios for the Polish power sector, and sectoral modelling results for buildings and transport for the Polish case. Based on the presentations and discussions, the following takeaways were noted:
- ETS prices above 100 EUR/t kill hard coal and lignite even if coal price is zero
- Surprisingly, Poland anticipates a slowdown in the rate of solar PV installation, in contrast to the recently observed growth and the much more optimistic mid-term projections by SolarPower Europe.
- Decarbonization of the power sector achievable before 2040 enabled by rapid expansion of wind & solar.
- Direct electrification is the cornerstone of climate neutrality, both in the transport sector as well as for heat provision in buildings and industry:
- Exploiting efficiency potentials would be essential in all demand sectors to reduce energy (and in particular future electricity) consumption;
- Increasing building renovation would increase the performance of heat pumps;
- Decarbonised district heating is seen as an increasingly relevant element for the future heating sector.
- An important (but limited) role of CDR, mainly to offset non-CO2 emissions and some residual fossil emissions.
- Electricity prices in Poland will stay high over the next years given high coal-shares in the power supply and rising ETS prices, but increasing shares of renewables are expected to bring prices down after 2030.
- Fairness is normative, but using commonly regarded ‘fair’ principles, the associated Polish GHG reduction targets in 2040 are between 90% and 125% compared to 1990.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101022622.
